Gates Warns of a 20-Year AI Transition With Winners and Losers
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Bill Gates says AI will create "true abundance," but the two decades before that point will be "as tumultuous a period as there's been in human history." The Microsoft cofounder made the comments on the latest episode of the "Decoder" podcast.
"My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where they'll have winners and losers and a lot of disruption," he said.
Which jobs go first
Gates said telesales, telesupport and accounting will disappear, because AI will be able to do that work "radically cheaper, radically faster, and even more accurately." Humanoid robots, he said, will take over blue-collar jobs.
"If we don't choose to massively slow down or stop, then we will have robots that can build houses, grow food, do surgery," Gates said. "And none of the things that human labor provides to the economy will be necessary for most goods and services."
He described how jarring that would be even for someone like him, whose resources have let him lead the push toward eliminating malaria and tackling other humanitarian crises. "And when the AI says to me, 'No, I'm better than you, you go play pickleball and I'll get back to you, I'm gonna take care of this' - I mean, it's kind of humorous, but it's not humorous," he said.
Gates restated his long-held view that work gives people a sense of purpose, an income, a reason to show up every day, relationships with colleagues and a way to build things and solve problems. He suggested that art, sports, cooking and childcare could one day be reserved for humans, "even though the AI could do those things better." Early retirement and caps on working hours could help keep some level of human employment, he said, and he pictured some people saying, "Let's be like the Amish and let's only use AI for certain things," so they would not give up "helping each other or coming up with unique ideas."
Other leaders have also weighed in on the disruption. Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon have both proposed a shorter workweek as a less painful alternative to AI-driven unemployment. Anthropic's Dario Amodei has said AI promises to "raise the quality of life for everyone," but that the "short-term shock will be unprecedented in size."
Elon Musk has predicted a "bumpy" transition and proposed government checks for all as the best solution to AI-driven job losses. He has said technology will drive production costs so low that everyone can have "whatever stuff they want," that work will become "optional," and that saving for retirement in 10 or 20 years is not worth it because money won't matter.
OpenAI's Sam Altman said in May that AI has not eliminated as many white-collar jobs as he expected and that he no longer anticipates a "jobs apocalypse." National unemployment has not increased materially during the AI boom, despite high-profile layoffs at companies such as Amazon and Meta.
Source: Business Insider